White House compares industrial revolution with AI era

A White House paper titled “Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence” sets out parallels between the effects of the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries and the current times, with artificial intelligence positioned as guiding the way the world’s economies will be shaped.

Artificial intelligence now sits at the centre of US economic strategy, currently representing a significant portion of the country’s economic activity, as characterised by the building of AI infrastructure, most notably in the form of data centres. The paper says AI investment raised US GDP by 1.3% percent in the first half of 2025, and compares this with the investment in the railway network during the industrial revolution.

“Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence” says long-term growth depends primarily on gains in productivity, and AI is the tool to achieve those gains. It presents a range of estimates of AI’s impact on GDP, from single-digit increases to 20% productivity growth inside a decade. It also floats some more extreme scenarios, where GDP grows at more than 45% as AI substitutes for human labour in the longer term.

Capital deployment in the form of building AI infrastructure, not growing consumption or public spending, is now creating US economic growth. Investment in data processing equipment, buildings, infrastructure, and software grew 28% in early 2025, and AI-related infrastructure represented around a quarter of all US investment in 2025.

Training compute capacity used by AI models has increased roughly four-fold per year since 2010, and the length of tasks AI systems can complete has doubled every seven months for six years, the paper states. The cost per token of AI output has fallen by factors ranging from nine to nine hundred per year, depending on task and model.

By late 2025, around 78% percent of organisations had reported using AI, up from 55% in 2024, and it’s claimed that 40% of US workers use generative AI in their jobs. Nearly half of US businesses now pay for AI subscriptions. The report poses these figures as evidence that AI has moved from experimentation into routine production.

Internationally, the document frames AI as a factor in divergence of economic prosperity, with AI in the US increasing America’s GDP growth faster than in Europe and China. The US leads at the moment in private AI investment, model development, and compute capacity, while the EU’s share of world GDP has fallen since 1980. Additionally, the continent lags in comparable AI metrics – investment, construction, software development, overall capacity, etc. China remains a major player in AI actor, but the report notes that much of its model training relies on US-designed hardware.

The White House publication advocates for an integrated national strategy with investment incentives at its core. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act gave significant financial breaks for data centres and IT infrastructure, and created favourable conditions for speedy facility construction, in line with the Act’s aim to lift GDP growth by more than a percentage point per year over the medium term. The report argues that deregulation in the AI industry supports productivity by lowering costs, increasing competition, and speeding innovation. Trade agreements and foreign policy reinforce this approach, with overseas partners committing to large purchases of US-derived AI chips and infrastructure.

The paper notes that AI data centres are electricity-intensive, and projects that demand for power by AI infrastructure could reach up to 12% of domestic electricity consumption by 2028. It links the success of AI to energy availability and the ability of the power grid to deliver, positioning the control of energy supply as a prerequisite for international leadership in AI.

The report’s conclusion is that the countries that lead in AI investment and adoption will experience higher growth than the mean. The United States is aligning multiple policy rafts to ensure its leading position in the sector. Businesses that build systems in line with its national goals will be part of a dominant economic force shaping the next phase of global growth.

(Image source: “Chicago Thaws into Spring” by Trey Ratcliff is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.)

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