Trump Warned of a Tren de Aragua ‘Invasion.’ US Intel Told a Different Story

As the Trump administration publicly cast Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua (TdA) as a unified terrorist force tied to President Nicolás Maduro and operating inside the United States, hundreds of internal US government records obtained by WIRED tell a far less certain story. Intelligence taskings, law-enforcement bulletins, and drug-task-force assessments show that agencies spent much of 2025 struggling to determine whether TdA even functioned as an organized entity in the US at all—let alone as a coordinated national security threat.

While senior administration officials portrayed TdA as a centrally directed terrorist network active across American cities, internal tasking directives and threat assessments repeatedly cite “intelligence gaps” in understanding how the group operated on US soil: Whether it had identifiable leadership, whether its domestic activity reflecting any coordination beyond small local crews, and whether US-based incidents pointed to foreign direction or were simply the work of autonomous, profit-driven criminals.

The documents, marked sensitive and not intended for public disclosure, circulated widely across intelligence offices, law-enforcement agencies, and federal drug task forces throughout the year. Again and again, they flag unresolved questions about TdA’s US footprint, including its size, financing, and weapons access, warning that key estimates—such as the number of members operating in the US—were often inferred or extrapolated by analysts due to a lack of corroborated facts.

Together, the documents show a wide gap between policy-level rhetoric and on-the-ground intelligence at the time. While senior administration officials spoke of “invasion,” “irregular warfare,” and “narco-terrorism,” field-level reporting consistently portrayed Tren de Aragua in the US as a fragmented, profit-driven criminal group, with no indication of centralized command, strategic coordination, or underlying political motive. The criminal activity described is largely opportunistic—if not mundane—ranging from smash-and-grab burglaries and ATM “jackpotting” to delivery-app fraud and low-level narcotics sales.

In a March 2025 proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act, President Donald Trump claimed the gang had “thousands” of members who had “unlawfully infiltrated the United States” and were “conducting irregular warfare and undertaking hostile actions.” He claimed the group was “aligned with, and indeed has infiltrated, the Maduro regime,” warning that Venezuela had become a “hybrid criminal state” invading the US.

At the same time, however, an internal Border Patrol assessment obtained by WIRED shows officials could not substantiate those claims, relying instead on interview-based estimates rather than confirmed detections of gang members entering the US.

In a Fox News interview the same month, US attorney general Pam Bondi called TdA “a foreign arm of the Venezuelan government,” claiming its members “are organized. They have a command structure. And they have invaded our country.” Weeks later, in a Justice Department press release announcing terrorism and drug-distribution charges against a TdA suspect, Bondi insisted it “is not a street gang—it is a highly structured terrorist organization that put down roots in our country during the prior administration.”

Documents show that inside the intelligence community, the picture appeared far less settled. Although TdA’s classification as a foreign terrorist organization—following a February 2025 State Department designation—immediately reshaped policy, internal correspondence shows the group remained poorly understood even by senior counterterrorism officials, including those at the National Counterterrorism Center. Unresolved questions about TdA—alongside newly designated drug cartel entities in Mexico—ultimately prompted intelligence managers to issue a nationwide tasking order, directing analysts to urgently address the US government’s broad “knowledge gaps.”

The directive, issued May 2, 2025, underscores the breadth of these intelligence gaps, citing unresolved questions about whether the entities had access to weapons beyond small arms, relied on bulk-cash shipments, cryptocurrencies, or mobile payment apps, or were supported by corrupt officials or state-linked facilitators overseas.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard attributed the shortfall to competing priorities, telling WIRED that the “Intelligence Community was unable to devote collection resources towards TdA” prior to the Trump administration giving it the “terrorist” label. “This is where the ‘knowledge gaps’ stem from.”

The tasking order makes clear those uncertainties extended beyond TdA’s past activity to its potential response under pressure. Issued by national intelligence managers overseeing counterterrorism, cyber, narcotics, and transnational crime, it flagged a lack of insight into how TdA and several Mexican cartels might adapt their operations or shift tactics in response to intensified US enforcement.