Where Are All the New Cars?

Ministeri adds that Chinese OEMs, ahead in software compared to Western makers in terms of autonomous driving tech, he believes, weren’t on show because right now they cannot launch any vehicles in the US. CES, therefore, is simply no longer “the right for stage for them.”

Andy Palmer, former COO of Nissan and former CEO of Aston Martin Lagonda, goes further. “CES used to matter to carmakers because the industry was borrowing technological credibility from Silicon Valley. Today that relationship has flipped. Automotive tech is no longer an exciting novelty, it’s to be expected,” he says. “Electrification, software, and ADAS are now industrialized technologies. They are no longer concept-stage theater pieces that need a Las Vegas stage.”

More importantly, Palmer, Nothard, and Ministeri all state that the center of gravity for the auto world has moved—both technologically and geographically—to, of course, China. This makes China’s main auto expo, which alternates each year between Shanghai and Beijing, now the location where carmakers must posture and preen.

Indeed, as WIRED pointed out in May last year, Shanghai 2025 wasn’t just a car show—it was a warning to the West. Having poached some of the best Western auto talent, China’s car industry set about showing how it was going to dominate globally in charging rates, ranges, design, tech, and sheer volumes. Detroit and Munich were put on notice. It was blindingly obvious to all in the industry where the new power lay.

“Shanghai has become more strategically important than CES for many manufacturers,” Palmer says, “because that’s where the fastest innovation cycles, supply chains, and consumer demand now sit. If you want to signal the future of automotive, that’s increasingly where you do it.”

Chinese automakers aren’t merely content with showing off on home turf, though. So with CES out of the question, they’ve been looking for a replacement. Step forward Munich’s IAA Mobility, now Europe’s largest car convention following the death of the Geneva Motor Show. “The Chinese are looking for a platform to show off their products outside of China,” says Ministeri. “When you’re Mercedes or BMW, and you see China investing in the IAA, you have to be there. So they make huge investments. This year, at IAA, was the most beautiful stand for Mercedes I’ve seen in 10 years going around motor shows.”

For CES, and perhaps by extension US auto brands, to get back to a place of dominance in the global car business, another truly seismic change in evolution of vehicles will have to take place. And, what’s more, the rate things are going, an annual event such as a car show will very soon come too late to keep pace with progress in China.

“Look at Chinese manufacturers’ lead time: from R&D to deliveries in two years on average,” Nothard says. “They’re bringing cars to the market very quickly. A traditional manufacturer’s average is seven years. So now you can’t have enough shows to deliver your new product. BYD, they’ve got a whole line of products on the horizon. Masses of new BYD product will be in the market before the next shows are even started to be created.”

“CES was at its peak point when software and interface, and software-defined vehicles became the pinnacle of everything that was happening in the auto sector, alongside EV technology. We’re now past that,” Nothard says. “It’ll take another big shift in the evolution of the car for CES to be put on the radar again.”