Optimism in productivity tempered by AI risk: Deloitte

Deloitte’s latest UK CFO Survey presents an improving outlook for large UK businesses, with technology investment – particularly in AI – emerging as a dominant strategy. The survey offers the signal that while macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain elevated, boards are converging increasingly on digital ability as a primary route to productivity and medium-term growth.

The strongest finding concerns technology investment. An overwhelming 96% of CFOs expect UK companies to increase investment in technology over the next five years, with 77% anticipating improvement to productivity and business performance. The figures are distinctive for a CFO-destined paper, and indicate digital spend is not viewed as discretionary or cyclical, but is treated as structural (akin to capital investment in previous industrial phases). For IT leaders, the paper shows sustained funding is available, but also points out the heightened expectations for delivery, integration, and measurable returns from the technology.

Artificial intelligence sits at the centre of the paper and CFO sentiment in general. The proportion of CFOs becoming ‘more optimistic’ about AI’s ability to improve organisational performance has risen to 59%, up from 39% in Q3 2024. This change isn’t incremental, suggesting AI has crossed from experiment into mainstream financial confidence. Importantly, the survey does not indicate a wholesale rise in risk-taking to accompany the new-found optimism. Risk appetite, while improving, remains subdued at 15%, below the longer average of 25%. This combination – confidence in AI but continued balance-sheet caution – has implications for how AI initiatives are likely to be governed and controlled. Finance functions are likely to need tightly-scoped uses and productivity metrics over open-ended experiments and trials.

For finance professionals, the environment reinforces the role of the CFO as a steward of technology, rather than a passive consumer of IT budgets. The survey positions finance chiefs as shaping digital strategy where AI is concerned. The paper’s emphasis on productivity gains suggests a preference for applications that automate processes and help with financial forecasting, not just customer-facing innovation. IT teams should expect closer scrutiny of business cases presented to them, more involved work from finance professionals, and a translation of technical ability to financial outcomes.

Despite improving sentiment metrics, the survey also highlights some notable constraints. Business confidence remains negative at net -13%, below its long-term average, despite optimism having lifted from lows recorded in earlier iterations of the CFO Survey from Deloitte. Capital expenditure is a priority, but only 17% of CFOs describe it as a ‘strong priority’, only just above the long-term average. This suggests while investment is protected, it’s not immune: Programmes perceived as speculative, poorly governed, or badly aligned with productivity are still unlikely to survive.

External uncertainty, though declining, remains notable. 38% of CFOs still rate their uncertainty in the future as ‘high’ or ‘very high’, and geopolitics still dominates the risk landscape, as cited by 65% of respondents. UK competitiveness and productivity follow closely, with a historically high risk rating of 62. Systems resilience, data security, energy efficiency, and supply-chain visibility are likely to command attention as well as the overall goal of efficiencies created by the use of AI in operations.

A notable subtext of the survey is the human dimension of the technology’s adoption. Deloitte’s leadership realises AI’s value depends on combining technology with human skills and the need to upskill workforces. While this is not quantified in the survey data, it aligns with the broader pattern of cautious optimism: CFOs are willing to invest, but not to assume that technology, as of itself, delivers outcomes. This strengthens the case among IT leaderships for embedding change management, training, governance, and oversight into new digital programmes.

The Deloitte CFO Survey shows a pragmatic and decisive turn towards technology-led productivity in UK businesses. Its evidence is strongest around sustained digital investment and the noteworthy rise in confidence in AI. There’s continued caution on risk and a recognition of a challenging external environment. For Finance professionals, the priority is allocation of capital to initiatives that can improve performance demonstrably. For IT staff, opportunity is expanding, but so is accountability. Digital ambition will be funded in all likelihood, but only where it can be translated into credible, auditable business value.

(Image source: “Deloitte exposure” by zilverbat. is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.)

Want to learn more about AI and big data from industry leaders? Check out AI & Big Data Expo taking place in Amsterdam, California, and London. The comprehensive event is part of TechEx and co-located with other leading technology events. Click here for more information.

AI News is powered by TechForge Media. Explore other upcoming enterprise technology events and webinars here.